Poll Shows Schilling Up Seven

On October 21, 2010, in General, by edwardpan

The Hill: Schilling 45, Hare 38

The Hill has released a new poll showing Bobby Schilling, Republican candidate for Congress in the Illinois 17th District, with a seven point lead over incumbent Democrat Phil Hare.

Bobby Frederick, communications director for the Bobby Schilling campaign, said this is great news.

“Once again, we have more evidence that Bobby Schilling’s pro-growth message is resonating with voters, while Phil Hare’s false and desperate attacks are falling on deaf ears,” Frederick said. “We will continue to work hard these last thirteen days taking nothing for granted. This race is still going to be a photo finish, but we believe we have the ground game, the message, and the momentum to emerge victorious on Election Day.”

From The Hill:

Rep. Phil Hare (D-Ill.) is in trouble. He ran unopposed in 2008, but this cycle he trails the GOP candidate, Tea Party favorite Bobby Schilling, by seven points – 38 percent to Schilling’s 45 – and 14 percent of likely voters are undecided, according to The Hill 2010 Midterm Election Poll.

Perhaps even more troubling, 50 percent of independent voters support Schilling, while only 29 percent support Hare. Also among independents, 45 percent had a negative view of Hare, while only 18 percent had a negative view of Schilling, who’s never run for office and owns a pizza restaurant.

President Obama carried this district, and 57 percent of independents gave the president low marks.

Meanwhile, Hare trails by 17 points among male voters, while he only leads by two points among female voters. Schilling has a 20-point lead among middle-aged voters. Hare wins younger and older voters by a small margin.

Meanwhile, 95 percent of Republicans said they definitely will vote, while 84 percent of Democrats said the same.

And 38 percent of voters said Obama has brought change to Washington “for the worse,” while 25 percent said it was “for the better” and 34 percent said nothing has changed.

The NRCC has spent about $341,000 in independent expenditures, while the DCCC has spent around $599,000.

The Hill poll was conducted by Penn Schoen Berland Oct. 12-14. The survey consisted of 417 phone interviews among likely voters and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.8 percent.

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New Schilling Hare Poll Numbers

On October 19, 2010, in General, by edwardpan

Schilling Leading 44% to 41%

The Washington Post blog, the Morning Fix, reported that Bobby Schilling leads incumbent Phil Hare 44 to 41 percent.

After Hare and national Democrats spent more than a million dollars in negative campaign ads, Schilling is still on top by 3 percentage points with positive momentum. With just two weeks to go please help Bobby however you can. Yesterday the Politico rated IL-17 the #5 hottest race in the country. Now lets put Bobby over the top with a strong finish!

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New Pew Poll on Independent Voters

On September 24, 2010, in Uncategorized, by edwardpan

Yesterday a new Pew poll testing independent voters was released that confirms a lot of what we are seeing in the race for the 17th congressional district. Analysis from Pew stated:

“The GOP’s advantage comes as a result of their 49% to 36% lead among independent and other non-partisan voters who are likely to vote in November… they are motivated by highly negative feelings about the government’s performance and harsh judgments about the political status quo. Just 35% express approval of their own congressional representative, and they are as likely as Republicans to say that their own incumbent does not deserve reelection.”

The poll shows that independents this year oppose the party in power, are unsatisfied with the current state of the economy, disapprove of the government takeover of health care, prefer smaller government, and overwhelmingly believe Republicans can better improve the job situation and reduce the budget deficit.

The last poll of the IL-17 race showed Bobby winning independent voters by a 2:1 ratio. Bobby is someone new with ideas at a time when the economy is facing double digit unemployment under Phil Hare’s watch. Bobby’s campaign has been focused on issues like how to get the economy working again with policies that will result in economic growth and better conditions for job creation, issues that will appeal to those independent voters who have been hit hard by the recession.

The two graphs below from the Pew poll show the change in preferences and opinions over the last four years.

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The Associated Press published a story yesterday titled, “Economic Worries Strain Loyalty for Some Democrats.” It’s worth a read, but here are some of the key highlights (which happen to also closely reflect what we are seeing everyday on the campaign trail):

“Some independents and conservative Democrats — particularly white men who supported Obama before — say they no longer believe Obama and the Democratic Congress can help them. Polls and interviews suggest they’re ready to swing to the Republican side — the leading edge of a storm bearing down on Democratic incumbents…

Even the signature accomplishment of Obama’s first 18 months in office, a national health care overhaul, doesn’t earn the president much credit with voters…

Republican Bobby Schilling is focusing on economic worries with a series of “Bob’s for Jobs” campaign events…

Schilling, the Republican congressional candidate, said his campaign is getting support from Democrats who feel Washington is ignoring their needs.”

Amazingly, incumbent Rep. Phil Hare was also quoted in the AP piece, arguing that stimulus money was creating jobs. The statement really shows how out of touch Hare is with the district.

Facts are stubborn things: its hard to tell someone that just lost their job that the stimulus is working. Democrats promised the country that the stimulus would keep unemployment below 8%, but the unemployment rate in Illinois is still above 10%. The argument that the stimulus creates jobs becomes even more difficult to swallow in a places like Decatur, IL where unemployment has gone from 7% in 2008 to more than 12.4% today.

Independents and conservative Democrats are coming to the conclusion that more government spending, more debt, and additional taxes might not be the best way to get this economy moving forward again. These sentiments were also reflected in yesterday’s We Ask America survey which showed Schilling winning Independent support against Hare by an impressive 2:1 margin. The message is clear: the people 17th district want a new direction and a renewed focus on improving the economy and creating jobs.

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New Poll: Schilling Beating Hare 41-38%

On September 8, 2010, in General, by edwardpan

Rep. Phil Hare Gets a Cold Shoulder from Independent Voters

Hare Still Can’t Break 39% in Public Polling

Today an independent poll was released by We Ask America showing Bobby Schilling defeating Phil Hare less than 8 weeks before election day.

We Ask America
Total
GOP
Dem
Independent

Bobby Schilling (R)
41.15%
79.66%
8.75%
44.41%

Phil Hare (D)
38.41%
9.60%
73.09%
22.63%

Roger Davis (G)
3.85%
1.13%
2.84%
7.82%

Uncertain
16.60%
9.60%
15.32%
25.14%

According to We Ask America (the producers of this latest survey),

“[Rep. Phil Hare] has run into a bit of trouble as of late. A rather unfortunate quote regarding the U.S. Constitution started the ball rolling downhill for Hare… To complicate matters for Hare, the district has a Green Party candidate, Roger Davis.”

Hare’s weak re-elect numbers closely reflect a November 2009 poll which showed Hare unable to garner 39% support for his re-election. Today’s We Ask America survey shows Hare dropping to only 23% support from Independents compared to Bobby Schilling’s 44% support. Momentum is on Bobby Schilling’s side and Hare’s poor performance among Independents proves that voters are ready for someone to focus on changing the direction of our economy, lowering spending, and creating good-paying jobs.

In early August of 2010 Public Opinion Strategies released a survey of IL-17 showing a statistical tie. ”Phil Hare is among the most vulnerable incumbents in the country,” said pollster, Glen Bolger of Public Opinion Strategies. ”With an underwhelming image, an upside down re-elect, and a stunningly low ballot score, it is difficult to see a path to victory for the incumbent Congressman. Conversely, Republican Bobby Schilling has built a grassroots campaign that is continuing to gain momentum. As a result, Schilling is well positioned to defeat Hare this November.”

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